WORLD WAR II: BRANCHES OF THE PATH: Part 3

Steve Cole's thoughts on the many ways that World War II could have taken a very different direction during 1942-43.
     
1942, May, Operation Bolero: An invasion of France at this point by US and British troops would have been very different from Overlord, focusing only on seizing the Cherbourg peninsula (or Brest). The scant German forces in the West could not have thrown them into the sea, although the beachhead might have become a self-feeding prison camp for the allied Army. Protected by airpower and naval gunfire, the landing would have been safe from the Germans, but any breakout would come a year (or two) later and only after a massive buildup of troops. On the other hand, the poor performance of the US Army in North Africa may have meant that taking on the veteran Germans was a bad idea. The Luftwaffe was very strong in 1942 and might have made the idea of keeping battleships near the French coast very dangerous.

        

1942, June, for want of a seaplane: When the Japanese were moving to attack Midway (to lure the US fleet into a major battle) they sent seaplanes to cover their eastern and northern flanks, thereby preventing any surprises. Trouble was, the specific seaplane aimed at the American fleet (which the Japanese did not know was at sea) had to be repaired and took off an hour late, meaning it found the US fleet an hour later than it should have. As this seaplane was in the middle of the search fan, a competent staff officer might have simply told the seaplane on the left or right side to shift to the empty middle spot and the late seaplane to take the outer course. (Even better, a spare seaplane could have been ready to cover the delayed route.). That plane would have spotted the US fleet when the Japanese carriers (with a strike force armed with torpedoes and anti-ship bombs) was ready on deck. The Japanese would have probably destroyed one or two of the three US carriers, delaying American victory for a year. (The US industrial base was too great to change the outcome of the war.)
     

1942, August, no strategic bombing: The US might have decided to never build a heavy bomber force that could strike inside Germany. This would have sent more high-quality men to the ground forces, saved a bunch of money, avoided a lot of civilian casualties (on both sides if the Germans followed suit), and not really changed the war. (Strategic bombing did not really accomplish all that much other than forcing the Germans to disperse industrial efforts and assign a lot of men to anti-aircraft gun crews.) The biggest result would have been that the US Army Air Forces remained a tactical air support operation, the post-war ICBM force went to the Army artillery branch that invented it, and no US Air Force would have been formed for decades. Oh, and the Japanese would have lasted much longer without B-29s burning their cities to the ground.
         

1943, May, the allies invade France: An invasion at this point (Operation Roundup) would (still) have been very different from Overlord, focusing only on seizing the Cherbourg peninsula (or Brest) but with more available troops a larger area could have been taken than in 1942. The German forces in the West could not have thrown them into the sea. Protected by airpower and naval gunfire, the landing would have been safe from the Germans, but any breakout would come a year later with a massive buildup of troops. In the end, the war would have still ended the same way at the same time.
   

1943, July, the Allies invade Sardinia: The invasion of Sicily was one of two options, the other being to send Patton and Montgomery to Sardinia. (Apparently, no one considered sending each to his own island.) Defended by only one division, the island would have been taken quickly with minimal casualties (compared to a hard fight on Sicily), putting the allies in position to invade Italy north of Rome instead of south of it. This would have eliminated the entire Gothic Line battle and the Anzio debacle, possibly shortening the war.
        

1943, September, the US stops the Italian War: The US never wanted to invade Italy. It saw this as a useless diversion from the real target (Germany) and as only benefiting British ambitions in the Balkans. Had the US refused to play and sent their divisions from Sicily to France instead, the vast casualties of the Italian theater would have been avoided, the invasion of France accelerated, and (perhaps) the war would have ended sooner. One could argue that the Germans also tied down divisions in Italy, but half of those would have had to stay there just in case of an invasion. Another factor that most people don't realize is that once the US invaded Italy, the Germans cut off supplies to their former ally and the US had to supply all of Italy's food and coal.