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Wednesday, February 02, 2011

Will Egypt Crumble?

This is Steven Petrick posting.

Mubarak has apparently decided on a two pronged effort to gain control of the situation in Egypt. He has used available transportation means to bring in civilian supporters, these are provided with means of "civil violence" (rocks, clubs, blades) and have moved against the demonstrators in key areas. He has also apparently ordered the military to enforce the curfew by force. There are reports that heavy machinegun fire has been heard in Cairo.

It remains to be seen if the mobs will back down, or simply get angry and become more violent. It also remains to be seen if the military will continue to support Mubarak after this, or if the previous week of more limited interaction will have led more than a few of the troops into being suborned. Out and out civil war is still a possibility. It is questionable as to whether or not Mubarak's departure in the short term is in our own national interests. If Mubarak leaves . . . well the Shah left, and look how well that has worked for us in Iran.

The most likely outcome of Mubarak's departure will be a radicalized Egypt, and likely a new government looking for something to focus the people on. If the Muslim brotherhood gets control, it may just mean a massive increase of weapons smuggling into Gaza and indirect attacks on Israel.

Worse than that, however, will be the further destabilization of other regimes in the middle east, and the inevitable impact this will have on the cost of energy. This, ultimately, is the biggest fear. If Mubarak goes, the shift in relations in the middle east and encouragement that will provide to other radical Muslim groups to take power will have tremendous long term consequences.